Ductless Heat Pumps 2022 Long-Term Monitoring and Tracking Report

This is the second Long-term Monitoring and Tracking (LTMT) evaluation of the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance’s (NEEA) Ductless Heat Pumps (DHPs) Market Transformation program. NEEA actively worked to accelerate adoption of DHPs from 2008 to 2020. The objective of this LTMT study was to gauge adoption of DHPs by the Northwest’s residential HVAC market, specifically across NEEA’s three target markets. NEEA assessed this progress using four Diffusion Indicators, each of which provides a different measurement of how the DHP market is transforming: 

  1. The number of DHPs installed in single-family homes to displace/replace electric zonal heat or electric forced air furnaces is increasing.
  2. The installed cost for a single-head DHP remains constant or decreases.
  3. The share of regional HVAC companies offering DHPs remains constant or is increasing.
  4. The number of counties in the region with HVAC companies that install DHPs remains constant or is increasing.

Using data collected between October 2022 and January 2023, the research team found mixed results. The share of regional HVAC companies offering DHPs remained constant since 2020 (satisfying Diffusion Indicator 3). In contrast, the average installation cost for a single-DHP increased by 11% compared to 2020 (missing Diffusion Indicator 2). NEEA will continue evaluating diffusion of DHPs via future LTMT studies.

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