Variable Speed Heat Pump Baseline and Key Assumptions Review

As part of its Variable Speed Heat Pump (VSHP) program, the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) contracted with Cadmus Group for an independent review of the program’s naturally occurring baseline market share forecast and key assumptions for central/ducted Low Load Efficient VSHPs. Between March-May 2023, Cadmus reviewed NEEA’s data sources, documents and calculations, and then provided feedback and recommendations. 

Based on the findings from the review, Cadmus provided the following recommendations: 1) NEEA should supplement its current data sources with additional incremental cost data and field performance data for Low Load Efficient VSHPs compared to non-Low Load Efficient VSHPs and 2) NEEA should then repeat analyses with the augmented data. Finally, Cadmus found that NEEA’s evidence and assumptions for the naturally occurring baseline are well supported but could be furthered strengthened with additional data and simplified analyses.

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