HVAC Installation Contractor Market Research

The Northwest Energy Alliance (NEEA) contracted with Evergreen Economics to conduct qualitative research with residential HVAC contractors across Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington. The study sought to understand how heat pumps are selected, installed, and configured in real-world practice. Through focus groups and in-depth interviews, research examined contractor perspectives on connected commissioning, cold-climate heat pumps, auxiliary electric resistance heat, and dual-fuel system design and installation, providing grounded insight into the decision-making, constraints, and tradeoffs that shape HVAC performance across the Northwest. 

The report found that contractor decisions are driven less by technical knowledge gaps than by risk management, first-cost pressures, customer expectations, and structural constraints such as code requirements, ductwork limitations, and brand awareness. While contractors broadly understand how to achieve high-performance installations, past negative experiences, service and callback risk, and competitive pricing dynamics often push them toward conservative choices that limit realized savings. Local utility programs are deemed highly effective levers for shaping installation practice, with strongest influence in retrofit markets. The findings suggest that accelerating market progress will require reducing real and perceived contractor risk, aligning mid-stream incentives and requirements with installer decision-making, and supporting customer education and duct system improvements.